Jump to content
Xappan

Flips Guide PSA

Recommended Posts

I'd like to theorize a bit here about flips. As we know flips are a great way to win a little extra cash or, sometimes, lose all your money. It is gambling, by its nature random, but there are some precautions you can make to (probably) not lose everything you own.

For the sake of argument let's assume that roast is totally fair so the flips system is always a 50-50 chance, either you win or not, its either heads or tails. I've heard many many times that no, there is a backdoor, say, you lose 6 you'll definietly win your next one, or such stuff. Lets assume these are just tales.

If we go by the 50-50 chances that would mean that each flip you do you have 1/2 chance of winning/losing. And this is true to ALL of them. But there is a little maths here to consider:

While its true, that every coinflip you make is either heads or tail, and thus it's always 50%, the chance that the same thing occurs over and over is always changing, sometimes to extreme values.

Lets say you are starting a flips streak, you want some money. Each time you either win or lose the chances of the same outcome lessen by a margin. This means that losing 2 times in a row is less likely than winning and losing or losing and winning. The mathemtical equation that lets us calculate the chances of a choinflip always having the same result is quite easy: 0,5 x  where x is the number of wins or losses one wants to achieve. After a while the difference gets quite small so I'll calculate the starting ones for you:

losing 1 - 50 %

losing 2 - 25 %

losing 3 - 12.5 %

losing 4 - 6.25 %

losing 5 - 3.125 %

losing 6 - 1.56 %

etc.

By this we can see that if you somehow manage to lose 6 times in a row the chances of your next flip to be a win is around 98.5 %

I'm not saying this is EXACTLY how the flips system work, I have no clue how its programmed, but this is how one calculates the odds of coinflip tosses in real life, and it seemed to work similarly ingame. Please still bear in mind you can ALWAYS lose, its never a 100% chance to win.

Happy flippin'

P.S.: If someone asks why I've made this, or "oh this is common sense" or such, it is not. I'd like to see some thoughtful gambling on the server and this might help some people not to lose everything they have (or lose it hehe)

Edit: I don't know how obvious was this from what I've wrote but one thing is certain: a coinflip is always 50-50. What I'm counting here are the chances of consecutive wins/fails. Of course every coinflip will have a 50% chance of being "heads" for example, but getting several "heads" in succession is less likely. If you think I'm bullshitting or something please just google the chances of x heads in a row you should find something that is easier to digest than my wording.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drew this theory towards coin flipping a long time ago. Some says that it's true while some call me retarded. I could see this theory being possible due to how people who are successful flippers gain their profits actually flip. They usually go low to get some losses, then slam a big flip when the % is in your favor. That's what i usually do, and it did indeed get me a lot of cash. Might just be luck though, which means it is truly just 50-50.

It's all a theory though (meant theory, not conspiracy lol). Though i agree with the way you bring up coin flipping. Sounds interesting. It could work indeed, or it could just be pure 50-50. I had an extra thought after reading what people said. The thing which popped up in mind is the way to pick a coin. Before, you could choose what side to pick, T or CT. Now, i there isn't really a consistent way to do this, meaning you'll get one or the other during the flips. You could make a flip and get CT, then join a flip and get T. No real way for you to pick what coin it will end up being, killing the thought of heads or tails. But yes, the theory you're bringing up does work in real life with the heads or tails, though it might not be synced with the system we have here. Though as i said, also drew this theory some time ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ice Cube said:

I drew this theory towards coin flipping a long time ago. Some says that it's true while some call me retarded. I could see this theory being possible due to how people who are successful flippers gain their profits actually flip. They usually go low to get some losses, then slam a big flip when the % is in your favor. That's what i usually do, and it did indeed get me a lot of cash. 

It's all a conspiracy though. Though i agree with the way you bring up coin flipping. I use this system, always have.

Not sure whether conspiracy is the right word but yeah. I think most people draw a similar conclusion even if not based on math or anything, or if not consciously, I just want to give everyone a fighting chance :P But until we actually get roast's input on how the flipping works its nigh' impossible to say certain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, natsirt said:

I rly dont like this.  NO MATTER WHAT you will always have 50/50 even if you lost 10 in a row before, (W=win L=lose) having LLLLLW is 1.56% just like LLLLLL. they have the same odds. this is especially true when u see that both players can have lost 7 beforehand etc.

 

12 minutes ago, squidward said:

flips are 50/50.

Natsirt is correct in this, you could lose 5 flips in a row, that literally just is your luck.

you guys aren't seeing the bigger picture. the chances are always gonna be 50/50, sure, but probability changes when it's cumulative. losing 5 flips in a row is very much possible, but highly unlikely as you have to lose the 50/50 five times in a row. if you can afford to lose, using an escalation method to bet can be lucrative. start with a low bet, and if you lose, double it. it might seem very counter-intuitive and you'll lose the money shortterm, but law of large numbers suggests that you'll eventually win your money back and then some. of course, it's entirely possible you run out of money before that point but that would have to either be horrible luck or your own fault for not having a big enough safety net.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Phalecrocorax said:

 

you guys aren't seeing the bigger picture. the chances are always gonna be 50/50, sure, but probability changes when it's cumulative. losing 5 flips in a row is very much possible, but highly unlikely as you have to lose the 50/50 five times in a row. if you can afford to lose, using an escalation method to bet can be lucrative. start with a low bet, and if you lose, double it. it might seem very counter-intuitive and you'll lose the money shortterm, but law of large numbers suggests that you'll eventually win your money back and then some. of course, it's entirely possible you run out of money before that point but that would have to either be horrible luck or your own fault for not having a big enough safety net.

I talked about this in OOC earlier, if you have (starting small) 875k and you start bet at 125k, then if you win its 125k, if you lose and double every time you will get a total of 125k profit. you have a 1/2x2x2 chance of loss as there are three steps (125k+250k+500k=875k) then you make a 125k profit 7/8 times and make a -875k loss 1/8. Adding more maths into this 7/8(chance of profit) x 125k(profit) = 109375 Then the loss 1/8(chance of loss) x -875k(loss)= -109375.

This balances out, the larger the safety net, the larger the potential loss. The lower the bid amountt the lower the profit. This will work with any numbers given, flips are 50/50, no 2 ways about it. 

Ex. 100k start bid, and 12.7mil safety net (this should be safe, right?) you have 7 goes before you are out. 1/2x2x2x2x2x2x2 chance of loss (1/128) and thus 127/128 win. 127/128x100k=99218.75 and the loss is 1/127x(-12700k)=-99218.75

sry man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, natsirt said:

I talked about this in OOC earlier, if you have (starting small) 875k and you start bet at 125k, then if you win its 125k, if you lose and double every time you will get a total of 125k profit. you have a 1/2x2x2 chance of loss as there are three steps (125k+250k+500k=875k) then you make a 125k profit 7/8 times and make a -875k loss 1/8. Adding more maths into this 7/8(chance of profit) x 125k(profit) = 109375 Then the loss 1/8(chance of loss) x -875k(loss)= -109375.

This balances out, the larger the safety net, the larger the potential loss. The lower the bid amountt the lower the profit. This will work with any numbers given, flips are 50/50, no 2 ways about it. 

Ex. 100k start bid, and 12.7mil safety net (this should be safe, right?) you have 7 goes before you are out. 1/2x2x2x2x2x2x2 chance of loss (1/128) and thus 127/128 win. 127/128x100k=99218.75 and the loss is 1/127x(-12700k)=-99218.75

sry man.

each individual flip will always be 50/50, yes, that's obvious, and there's always the small chance of a complete loss which is to be expected as it's gambling. the point is that the chances of losing in your scenario is 1/128 which is 0.7% and the chances of making a 100k profit is 99.3%. it's a good chunk of money that's nothing to sneer at and if it's not enough, you can always increase the initial bet or triple it once after the first bet. if the risk outweighs the rewards is something that's completely up to you, but i personally think it's worth it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you dont want to watch the whole video you can skip to 5:50.

This video explains how to get profit gambling with the Martingale Bet sistem.

In the coin flipping part, the flips are 50/50 as natsirt and squidward said, but there is still a chance of getting unlucky and losing 10 flips in a row (like in the example given in the video)

So, talking from experience, if you winning a lot of flips in a row, I would recommend start lowering the ammount of money you flipping after 3 or 4 flips winned in a row as the possibilities of you winning are getting lower, but if you want a lot of money and you dont lower the ammount of cash you bet and you lose, I wouldnt double the ammount of money you lost because it is likely to be a losing streak and you will end up losing everything.

This being said, the last advice I will give you is; if you dont know when to stop gambling, then don't gamble or just gamble small ammounts of money because you will lose everything. I know this from experience.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...