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OoO

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  2. Flips Guide PSA

    in Guides

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Phalecrocorax said:

     

    you guys aren't seeing the bigger picture. the chances are always gonna be 50/50, sure, but probability changes when it's cumulative. losing 5 flips in a row is very much possible, but highly unlikely as you have to lose the 50/50 five times in a row. if you can afford to lose, using an escalation method to bet can be lucrative. start with a low bet, and if you lose, double it. it might seem very counter-intuitive and you'll lose the money shortterm, but law of large numbers suggests that you'll eventually win your money back and then some. of course, it's entirely possible you run out of money before that point but that would have to either be horrible luck or your own fault for not having a big enough safety net.

    I talked about this in OOC earlier, if you have (starting small) 875k and you start bet at 125k, then if you win its 125k, if you lose and double every time you will get a total of 125k profit. you have a 1/2x2x2 chance of loss as there are three steps (125k+250k+500k=875k) then you make a 125k profit 7/8 times and make a -875k loss 1/8. Adding more maths into this 7/8(chance of profit) x 125k(profit) = 109375 Then the loss 1/8(chance of loss) x -875k(loss)= -109375.

    This balances out, the larger the safety net, the larger the potential loss. The lower the bid amountt the lower the profit. This will work with any numbers given, flips are 50/50, no 2 ways about it. 

    Ex. 100k start bid, and 12.7mil safety net (this should be safe, right?) you have 7 goes before you are out. 1/2x2x2x2x2x2x2 chance of loss (1/128) and thus 127/128 win. 127/128x100k=99218.75 and the loss is 1/127x(-12700k)=-99218.75

    sry man.

  14. TamaJok Should be Admin

    in Recommend A Player

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Connor the Penguin said:

    I think Tamajok should 100% be admin because everyday Im on and when i am on i always see tamajok on duty. He takes a lot of pride as he does his job well. When I'm in sits with him he always makes the right decisions. He has recently made a Staff app for Admin he should get +support from every mod/admin because he deserves it.

     

    @DC  @Riph @JamieB @Tamajok

     

    I recommend @Connor the Penguin for not-even-user+ as he has bean ;) doing a good job @ @ing everyone.

    @Connor the Penguin   @Connor the Penguin.  @Connor the Penguin

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